dc.contributor.author | Berghald, Sebastian | |
dc.contributor.author | Mayer, Stephanie | |
dc.contributor.author | Bohlinger, Patrik | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-15T13:43:21Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-07-15T13:43:21Z | |
dc.date.created | 2024-02-13T10:06:40Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Environmental Research Letters. 2024, 19 (3), 1-10. | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 1748-9326 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3141317 | |
dc.description.abstract | The increase in heatwave intensity, causing heat stress and crop failures in many regions is a concerning impact of global climate change. In northern Europe, significant interannual variability previously prevented robust assessments of trends in heat extremes. However, with a large-ensemble seasonal hindcasts and archived forecasts dataset covering 1981–2022 multiple realisations of weather patterns can be pooled and assessed. What are recent trends of extreme temperatures? Has the risk for a 100-year heatwave event increased in Northern Europe? We apply the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach to assess the credibility of the model ensemble and use non-stationary extreme value analysis to quantify recent trends in extreme 3-day heatwaves in late spring and early summer (May to July). We find significant non-stationarity and positive trends in annual maximum heatwave intensity. We also show that heatwave volatility, i.e. the risk of clearly outstanding heatwaves, is highest in central Scandinavia. | en_US |
dc.description.abstract | Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: Applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries | en_US |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.rights | Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.subject | Klimaendringer og naturfare | en_US |
dc.subject | Climate change and natural hazards | en_US |
dc.title | Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: Applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries | en_US |
dc.title.alternative | Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: Applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries | en_US |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | en_US |
dc.type | Journal article | en_US |
dc.rights.holder | © 2024 The Author(s) | en_US |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | en_US |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | original | |
cristin.qualitycode | 2 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 2245372 | |
dc.source.journal | Environmental Research Letters | en_US |
dc.source.volume | 19 | en_US |
dc.source.issue | 3 | en_US |
dc.source.pagenumber | 1-10 | en_US |
dc.relation.project | Meteorologisk institutt: 181090 | en_US |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 | en_US |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 | en_US |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 | en_US |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 | en_US |