dc.contributor.author | Haywood, Alan M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Tindall, Julia C. | |
dc.contributor.author | Dowsett, Harry J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Dolan, Aisling M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Foley, Kevin M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Hunter, Stephen J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Hill, Daniel J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Chan, Wing-Le | |
dc.contributor.author | Abe-Ouchi, Ayako | |
dc.contributor.author | Stepanek, Christian | |
dc.contributor.author | Lohmann, Gerrit | |
dc.contributor.author | Chandan, Deepak | |
dc.contributor.author | Peltier, Richard W. | |
dc.contributor.author | Tan, Ning | |
dc.contributor.author | Contoux, Camille | |
dc.contributor.author | Ramstein, Gilles | |
dc.contributor.author | Li, Xiangyu | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Zhongshi | |
dc.contributor.author | Guo, Chuncheng | |
dc.contributor.author | Nisancioglu, Kerim Hestnes | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Qiong | |
dc.contributor.author | Li, Qiang | |
dc.contributor.author | Kamae, Youichi | |
dc.contributor.author | Chandler, Mark A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Sohl, Linda E. | |
dc.contributor.author | Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Feng, Ran | |
dc.contributor.author | Brady, Esther C. | |
dc.contributor.author | von der Heydt, Anna S. | |
dc.contributor.author | Baatsen, Michiel L. J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Lunt, Daniel J | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-19T10:07:59Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-01-19T10:07:59Z | |
dc.date.created | 2020-08-31T16:54:08Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1814-9324 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2723625 | |
dc.description.abstract | The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports. | |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.relation.uri | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/2095/2020/cp-16-2095-2020-discussion.html | |
dc.rights | Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.title | The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity | en_US |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | en_US |
dc.type | Journal article | en_US |
dc.rights.holder | © 2020, Authors | |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | original | |
cristin.qualitycode | 1 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 1826328 | |
dc.source.journal | Climate of the Past | en_US |
dc.source.volume | 16 | en_US |
dc.source.issue | 6 | en_US |
dc.relation.project | Notur/NorStore: NN4659K | |
dc.relation.project | EC/FP7/610055 | |
dc.relation.project | Norges forskningsråd: 246929 | |