Developing a methodology for user-oriented verification of polar low forecasts

Abstract

Polar lows exhibit features with very sharp weather contrasts. In weather forecasting, a small misplacement of areas with hazardously high wind speeds can have fatal impacts for people living in polar regions. Therefore, a novel application of spatial verification methods for objective metrics of size, shape, and location of areas with hazardous weather is tested. To separate the effect of errors in polar low location and direction of motion from errors relative to the polar low centre, surface wind fields from the limited-area weather forecasting model Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale-Arctic and Copernicus Climate Change Service Arctic Regional Reanalysis are centred at the polar low centre and rotated according to the direction of background flow surrounding the polar low. Then the possibilities of the features-based verification methods SAL (structure, amplitude, location) and MODE (Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation) are explored using a test case from October 2019. The study demonstrates that the methodology can provide valuable information about forecast performance. MODE is a flexible method with metrics that focus on characteristics of individual objects and can be adapted to questions at hand. For example, a measure of storm eye size was added. SAL, on the other hand, provides effective summary metrics for the full domain and proved particularly useful for evaluation of the overall distribution of wind speed. To evaluate the number of correctly or incorrectly identified areas with harsh weather rather than their details about their shape, contingency scores are more suitable. Applied to a larger dataset, this methodology can assess performance as a function of forecast length, as well as geographical area, and the type of polar low. The methodology can also be applied to other types of low-pressure systems, such as extratropical cyclones.