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dc.contributor.authorKolstad, Erik Wilhelm
dc.contributor.authorO'Reilly, Christopher H
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-16T07:53:42Z
dc.date.available2024-07-16T07:53:42Z
dc.date.created2024-02-29T09:28:39Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.citationClimate Dynamics. 2024, 62 4223-4236.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3141390
dc.description.abstractOf the climate variability patterns that influence the weather in the North Atlantic region in winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant. The effects of the NAO span from cold air outbreaks to unseasonably warm conditions and unusual precipitation, with significant impacts on human activities and ecosystems. While a connection between the NAO and antecedent sea surface temperature (SST) conditions has been recognised for decades, the precise causal interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere remains enigmatic. In this study we uncover a robust statistical relationship between North Atlantic SSTs in November and the NAO throughout the subsequent winter in the extended ERA5 reanalysis back to 1940. We apply a well-established causal inference technique called mediation analysis, commonly used in social science and now adopted in climate research. This analysis highlights the roles of low-level baroclinicity, latent heat fluxes, and latent heat release in mediating the effect of November SSTs on the NAO in January and February. It is important to recognise that these mediators are interrelated. Moreover, our analysis reveals bidirectional relationships, where the NAO reciprocally mediates the effects of the November SSTs on these variables. This is evidence of a complex web of feedback mechanisms which collectively contribute to the response of the winter NAO to late autumn/early winter SSTs.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleCausal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAOen_US
dc.title.alternativeCausal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAOen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.rights.holder© The Author(s) 2024en_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-024-07128-y
dc.identifier.cristin2250878
dc.source.journalClimate Dynamicsen_US
dc.source.volume62en_US
dc.source.pagenumber4223-4236en_US
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 309562en_US


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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal