Browsing NORCE vitenarkiv by Author "Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm"
Now showing items 1-9 of 9
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The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar
Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Wainwright, Caroline; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Demissie, Teferi Dejene (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were ... -
Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains
Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Parker, Douglas John; MacLeod, David A.; Wainwright, Caroline M.; Hirons, Linda C. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)The East African “short rains” from October–December (OND) are crucial for the region's cultural and agricultural landscape. Traditional climate studies have often treated these rains as a single mode, representing the ... -
Causal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAO
Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; O'Reilly, Christopher H (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)Of the climate variability patterns that influence the weather in the North Atlantic region in winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant. The effects of the NAO span from cold air outbreaks to ... -
Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies
Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Lee, S.H.; Butler, A.H.; Domeisen, D.I.V.; Wulff, C. Ole (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of winter weather and climate variability and predictability in North America and Eurasia, with a downward influence that on average projects onto the North ... -
Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains
Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; MacLeod, D.; Demissie, Teferi Dejene (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)The ‘short rains’ in East Africa from October to December have significant year-to-year variability. Their abundance or deficiency is often associated with floods or droughts for which early warning is crucial, though even ... -
Effects of the Congo Basin Rainforest on Rainfall Patterns
Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Parker, Douglas John; Williams, D. Aled (Research report, 2023)Large-scale deforestation in the Congo Basin has an impact on rainfall patterns, both in the Basin and beyond. Factors like socio-economic drivers contribute to ongoing deforestation, and forest loss rates are expected to ... -
Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains
Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; MacLeod, David (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)The East African ‘short rains’ in October–December (OND) exhibit large interannual variability. Drought and flooding are not unusual, and long-range rainfall forecasts can guide planning and preparedness for such events. ... -
Large‐scale regional model biases in the extra‐tropical North Atlantic storm track and impacts on downstream precipitation
Pontoppidan, Marie Louise Nielsen; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Changhai, Liu; Rasmussen, Roy (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)Global climate models have circulation biases that the community aims to reduce, for instance through high‐resolution dynamical downscaling. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to downscale both ... -
Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events
MacLeod, David; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Michaelides, Katerina; Singer, Michael B. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)Strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events like those in 1997 and 2019 caused significant flooding in East Africa. While future projections indicate an increase in pIOD events, limited historical data hinders a ...